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Based on a true story, the film tells the horrifying tale of how world renowned paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren were called upon to help a family terrorized by a dark presence in a secluded farmhouse. Forced to confront a powerful demonic entity, the Warrens find themselves caught in the most terrifying case of their lives.
For what it’s worth, the film earned an A- from Cinemascore, which is unusually high for a horror film. Chalk the word-of-mouth up to both the film’s apparent high quality (waiting on the horror junkie wife for this one) and the fact that religious-themed horror film that plays well for those who are deeply religious. Think The Devil Inside,The Exorcism of Emily Rose ($ 30 million opening in 2005), and even Stigmata ($ 18 million opening back in 1999). In a far-less front-loaded era, The Exorcism of Emily Rose had a 2.67x weekend multiplier whileStigmata had a 2.8x multiplier. The same variables would give The Conjuring a debut of over/under $ 46 million. But even a relatively okay multiplier of 2.35x gets it over the $ 40 million mark.
Even if it “stalls†at $ 34 million, it still ends up one of the biggest horror debuts ever outside of films like the PG-13 The Grudge ($ 39 million), Paranormal Activity 2 ($ 40 million), Friday the 13th ($ 40 million),Paranormal Activity 3 ($ 52 million) and Hannibal ($ 58 million). If you want to count horror-tinged thrillers or horror sci-fi, toss in I Am Legend ($ 77 million), War of the Worlds ($ 64 million), Signs ($ 60 million), The Village ($ 50 million), and Shutter Island ($ 41 million) as possible top contenders. If it has anything resembling a 3x multiplier for the weekend (unlikely, but the film seems to be garnering solid word of mouth), then we’re looking at a $ 45-$ 50 million debut. Either way, expect The Conjuring 2 in two years.
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